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- Conservatives and Labour lead the betting at 1/1 and 5/4 respectively with Ladbrokes
- New polling shows Reform UK just 1% behind the Conservatives in Croydon
- Market shaping into a potential three-way contest ahead of polling day
Croydon Mayoral Market Signals Tightest Race in London
The betting market for the Croydon mayoral election is shaping up to be one of the tightest in London, with bookmakers unable to clearly separate the frontrunners ahead of polling day.
According to the latest odds from Ladbrokes, Conservatives and Labour are virtually neck-and-neck heading into polling.
UK Betting Sites have been giving odds on a series of Mayoral Elections on Thursday, with Croydon one of the most popular markets.
Despite what polling figures have suggested in recent days, Reform sit as 16/1 outsiders in the market.
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Croydon Mayoral Election Odds
| Party / Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Labour | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| Green Party | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Reform UK | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 66/1 | 1.5% |
The market currently gives a marginal edge to the Conservatives, but Labour remain well within striking distance.
Candidates Confirmed for Croydon Mayoral Race
Eight candidates are officially in the running:
- Rowenna Davis – Labour
- Ben Flook – Reform UK
- Ben Goldstone – Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
- Richard Michael Howard – Liberal Democrats
- Jose Joseph – Independent
- Jason Perry – Conservatives
- Michael Pusey – Taking The Initiative Party
- Peter Underwood – Green Party
The mix of mainstream parties and smaller political movements reflects a diverse electoral landscape, with multiple candidates potentially influencing the outcome.
18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excluded. Min first £5/€5 bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + T&Cs apply.
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Polling Shakes Up the Betting Picture
While the betting market currently favours the Conservatives and Labour, newly released London-wide polling from JLPartners suggests the race could be far tighter than the odds indicate.
The MRP poll of more than 2,000 Londoners projects the following vote shares in Croydon:
- Labour (Rowenna Davis): 23% (-2%)
- Conservatives (Jason Perry): 21% (-2%)
- Reform UK (Ben Flook): 20% (+2%)
- Green Party (Peter Underwood): 17% (-5%)
- Liberal Democrats (Richard Howard): 14% (+3%)
- Others: 6%
This data places Reform UK just 1% behind the Conservatives and only 3% behind Labour, significantly closer than their 16/1 odds would suggest.
What the expert says...
Where To Bet on the Croydon Election
With such a tight race developing, interest in political markets is expected to increase rapidly.
Leading betting sites are offering competitive odds and promotions as polling day approaches.
For more options tailored to politics and novelty markets, check out the best political betting sites.
